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THE BRANDON SUN • WESTMAN BUSINESS • OCTOBER 27, 2022
Economic growth observed but challenges remain BY COLIN SLARK
recovery is, in some cases, returning to pre-pandemic levels. However, beyond just inflation, these businesses are still a little behind be- cause of the substantial losses they in- curred over the pandemic years. “There’s a difference between recov- ering your revenue streams and recov- ering your losses,” she said. “Different industries are recovering at different rates.” Though some businesses are worried about the planned increases to the min- imum wage in Manitoba between now and October 2023, Cathcart said many businesses were already paying their employees at a higher rate. But when the minimum wage is raised, she said, there are also employees who will want to be compensated more as a result, as well as those who want a high- er wage to offset inflation. Although, that optimism for Manito- ba isn’t being shared by all small- and medium-sized businesses, according to Kathleen Cook, the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses’ director for the Prairies and Northern Canada. “Generally, optimism is growing, but the idea that everything is back to nor- mal doesn’t match reality,” she said. “It varies by sector, of course, but the busi- nesses hit hardest by the pandemic hav- en’t yet recovered.” The federation represents more than 95,000 businesses across Canada, in- cluding 4,000 in Manitoba. According to its most recent member surveys, fewer than half of respondents said their busi- nesses had returned to pre-pandemic revenues. For Manitoba, 64 per cent of respon- dents said they were below normal reve- nue and 58 per cent said the same thing across Canada, in a September survey. Those hardest-hit sectors include the hospitality, arts, culture and even store- front retail, Cook said. Cook pointed to labour shortages — especially skilled labour — as the big- gest issue identified by CFIB’s members in recent business barometer surveys. This could be linked to a societal issue, Trudel suggested. During the pandemic, she said, high school graduates couldn’t transition into the working world as was possible prior to the global health crisis, and now the market is trying to adjust to that change.
While Manitoba as a whole seems to be in a better economic position than it was during the peak of the COVID-19 pandem- ic, rural communities and smaller busi- nesses are experiencing a different pace of recovery. In late September, Manitoba Finance Minister Cameron Friesen told media during a financial update for the province that not only was the deficit for the 2021- 22 fiscal year less than half of what was originally projected, but that the econom- ic recovery from the negative effects of the pandemic had been stronger than anyone had expected. The estimated gross domestic product growth for Manitoba had originally been set around 5.5 per cent, but the actual fig- ure ended up at 9.3 per cent. Since Friesen’s figures are for Manitoba as a whole, the Sun spoke to several people in Brandon’s business community to see if that recovery is being experienced locally. While there has been no silver bullet to fix the ailed business during the pandemic, they said there has been an increased sense of optimism as the local economy settles into a new normal. Looking at the trends and cues in the lo- cal economy, the City of Brandon’s director of economic development Sandy Trudel said it hasn’t been a straight line to recov- ery, but there are signs. She listed the hospitality industry as an example. Demand for hotel rooms has in- creased and people are booking conven- tions and meeting once again — a signal that the sector is recuperating. With Canada’s final COVID-19 border measures ending and the cancellation of the ArriveCAN app, Trudel doesn’t think that sector will see a huge spike in interest because people have grown used to trav- elling in a different way, but it’s “one more layer that will make it easier to travel.” “However, we also see the reality that it was one of the hardest-hit sectors and staffing is not back in place yet,” Trudel said. “You’re starting to see demand creep- ing up, but employers are finding challeng- es in keeping the workforce coming in.” Businesses in general have also become accustomed to operating in a different way, having to disinfect more often and encour- age greater spacing between customers. Consumers themselves are not eating out as frequently, for example. Another challenge referenced by both Trudel and Brandon Chamber of Com- merce president Tanya LaBuick is the dou-
Sandy Trudel, the City of Brandon’s director of economic development, said the local economy is showing signs of recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic but challenges still remain. (Colin Slark/The Brandon Sun)
You’re starting to see demand creeping up, but employers are finding challenges in keeping the workforce coming in.”
– SANDY TRUDEL DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CITY OF BRANDON
dollars even further. It’s progress, Trudel said, but it hasn’t been pain-free. LaBuick said some other concerns she’s heard about from businesses are the ongoing labour shortage as well as increased sick time. “People are unwilling to work any kind of overtime,” she said. “Their busi- ness model has been built on working overtime to a certain degree.” At the Rural Manitoba Economic De- velopment Corporation, which is head- quartered in Brandon, chief executive officer Margot Cathcart said revenue
ble whammy of inflation and rising interest rates. Even if traffic is returning to levels closer to those seen pre-pandemic, the dol- lars coming in aren’t stretching as far. “With the supply-chain issues, there are a lot of bare shelves and a lot of hit and miss where there are things peo- ple can and cannot get,” LaBuick said. “Right now, certain things like children’s Tylenol seems to be hard to find for folks. That’s a concern as well as infla- tion.” Because of inflation, Trudel said, many customers are now drawn to low- er-cost options to try to stretch their
» cslark@brandonsun.com » Twitter: @ColinSlark
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